Cardinals prospect Maj made his debut with full-season A-ball Quad Cities today after a long wait. 2008 sandwich pick Lance Lynn was unable to make his start today because of forearm tightness. In his stead, 2008 18th rounder Jared Bradford, an extreme groundballer with great control and who limited home runs as a collegian at LSU, pitched the first five innings, striking out four and walking one. I’ll let Quad Cities’ Director of Broadcasting a Media Relations, Ben Chiswick, explain the rest, quoting from his postgame writeup (that incidentally has an unfortunate subtitle):

Appearing for the first time in a River Bandits uniform, Maj took over in the sixth. The 22-year-old impressed in his Midwest League debut, allowing just one hit over four frames. He retired 12 of the 13 batters he faced, responding to a one-out double in the sixth by setting down the last 11 batters in order. Maj added four punch-outs and struck out the side in the eighth to earn the save.

Keep it up! Dave Duncan’s a fan of pitchers who don’t walk batters or give out home runs, ya know.

(And for good reason.)

(And same goes for Jared Bradford, who’s off to a very solid start to his pro career.)

Jameson Maj has been promoted to the Quad Cities River Bandits, the Cardinals full-season A-ball affiliate. (I’m also surprised to find that his name is pronounced May.) Pete Parise was promoted to the Palm Beach Cardinals, also, so it stands to reason that Jameson will be returning to the closer role. This is excellent news—I expect Maj to dominate in the pitcher-friendly Midwest league. Just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing.

Congratulations go to the talented young right hander.

Jameson Maj is kicking ass (although dealing with some mildly worrying BIP tendencies lately as detailed in excruciatingly overlong detail below), Brian Broderick is on the DL, and my third sleeper minor leaguer for 2008, Juan Mosquera, mysteriously hasn’t been playing but wasn’t put on the DL.

Juan Mosquera, recall from an earlier post, is a switch-hitting 5’10″ shortstop from Panama City who walked 51 times against 39 strikeouts in the Dominican Summer League last year. He was assigned to the GCL Cardinals but hadn’t played until today, playing at second base. He went 0-1 with four walks. The out was a grounder to second with one out and a man on second that advanced the runner, so he’s off to a good start. My hope was that he’d add a little bit of meat over the winter and start hitting the ball into gaps, but he’s still listed at 154 lbs. In truth, my hope is that he’s the second coming of this guy, but Luhnow’s assesses him as more of a hard-worker than a toolsy guy. Looking forward to seeing what kind of a shortened season he has in the coming month and in winter ball.

And how cool is this? MinorLeagueSplits (by Jeff Sackmann) now allows you to toggle the statistics for park adjustment. Very cool.

A little update on these guys: Maj pitched on the back-end of the tandem on July 28th. He pitched a solid four innings, striking out four and walking none: six groundballs to five flyballs, but nothing reported as a line drive in the game recap. One of the flyballs, unfortunately, went for a home run pulled off the bat of lefty Steve Susdorf, who was a senior on the College World Series champion Fresno State, carries the reputation of an all-around good guy and team leader, and who’s been tearing the cover off the ball since going pro. Even though Williamsport’s stadium has even deeper walls than Busch III, it has inflated home runs by a bit over the past few years.

Still a good night: no walks, no line drives, one DP induced. It’s worth noting that the only batters to’ve hit a HR or drawn a walk from this pitcher are left-handers.

Mosquera has played one game since the one mentioned above in this post, he walked, grounded out to the pitcher, and flew out to left on the 26th. Here’s looking forward to that first base hit.

Broderick’s still on the DL.

Ask, and ye shall receive: Mosquera grounds two up the middle tonight, plus a flyout to left and a fielded grounder to first.

The theory of Fielding or Defense Independent Pitching originated with Vörös McCracken’s 1999 posting on rec.sport.baseball.analysis. His insight was that pitchers have no control over whether balls in play turn into outs or hits, outside of balls that he fields himself, but that pitchers have direct control over walks, strikeouts, and home runs. (The Three True Outcomes, not his term.) This caused a revolution in the way pitchers are evaluated and it’s turned out to be true that the best way to predict how well a pitcher will perform in the future is by looking at these peripheral 3TO statistics.

The theory been considerably refined since 1999. Tangotiger developed the weights to normalize McCracken’s DIPS theory to the current version of FIP, using this formula:

FIP = NC + (HR*13 + (BB+HBP-IBB)*3 – K*2)/IP

NC in that formula is a normalizing constant that needs adjusting for league and era—but for quick and dirty calculations, it’s 3.20. Dave Studeman refined FIP to xFIP by replacing the actual count of home runs allowed to 11 percent of flyballs allowed by that pitcher, since flyballs that make it to the track and those that clear the fence by a few feet aren’t something the pitcher can control—doing this removes some element of luck from the equation.

I think we can do better, though, since, contrary to McCracken’s initial observation, most pitchers have ball-in-play tendencies that are predictable year-to-year. Pitchers like Johan Santana who induce a large portion of flyballs of the total number of balls in play allowed usually maintain those high flyball rates throughout their careers, same goes for groundball pitchers like Brandon Webb. Crucially, different types of balls put into play are converted into outs at different rates. Pop-ups very rarely land for a hit, flyballs are caught at a fairly high percentage, and groundballs are converted at a lower rate. Line drives tend not to be converted into outs very often at all. Fangraphs now publishes a statistic called xBABIP (explained here). The acronym expands to eXpected Batting Average on Balls In Play, and is calculated using this formula:

.15 * FB% + .24 * GB% + .73 * LD%

Per their parameters, then, flyballs are expected to be caught 85% of the time and land safely 15% of the time, groundballs turn into outs 76% of the time, and 27% of line drives should be caught in the air. Since pitchers do have some control over the type of balls in play against them to some measurable degree, and the type of ball in play allowed has consequences that effect both home run allowed rate and BABIP generally, discussed some here by Derek Carty, these factors can be modeled into an unexpected DIPS-style statistic that ought to be a better predictor of a pitcher’s future performance.

Clumsy Segue

There are no “line-drive pitchers” that have any sort of success in professional baseball since line drives are clearly undesirable types of balls in play due to their being unplayable nearly three-quarters of the time. Line drives mean that the batter squared up on the pitch and hit it hard. From start to start, month to month, year to year over a pitchers’ career, his line drive rate’ll vary some with the quality of his stuff, the quality of opponents he faces, the hitter’s background, blind luck, or any number of things in varying degrees of his control. That variability in LD%, the quality of the defense he pitches in front of, and the pitcher’s strand rate—measuring in a way the clumpiness of balls in play unconverted to outs—are the primary factors that account for the unpredictability of a pitcher’s ERA from year to year. Good pitchers strike out a lot of batters to reduce the fickleness of balls in play, don’t walk many batters, and tend to control well how balls are put into play against them, either on the ground or in the air, but rarely squarely hit for line drives.

This brings me to my favorite pet prospect, the 45th rounder Jameson Maj who threw 5 innings of 4 hit ball tonight, allowing 2 unearned runs to score. He walked his third player of the season—all lefthanders. Maj had been giving up far too many line drives lately, but in his last game before tonight, he’d allowed none. Tonight, three batters hit liners off of him and all three went for hits, including the 3rd inning double that was the key to scoring those two unearned runs off him. He’s still striking out batters in bunches and walking very few—he’s at a sparkling 27:3 k:bb in 31 innings. But 21% of the balls in play against him are line drives—hitters are making solid contact too frequently. The full breakdown of balls in play look like this so far this season:

Bunts: 0.0117647058824
Popups: 0.105882352941
Groundballs: 0.458823529412
Flyballs: 0.211764705882
Gliners: 0.0588235294118
Liners: 0.152941176471

The groundball percentage is great, especially for a pitcher with this kind of strikeout ability. Popups are the best kind of ball in play you can induce, but they’re hard to get—there are more ways to make a ball sink unexpectedly to get groundballs and only one way to make a ball fail to sink as expected to get a popup. I didn’t differentiate college flyballs and popups, but I’m pretty sure the popup rate was higher in college than here, although 10% of balls in play being easy outs that don’t advance runners is a solid, healthy rate. I suspect (straight BS’ing here) that part of the line-drive problem may come from using a riding four-seam fastball as an out-pitch and to get those popups—batters are just guessing right on them sometimes and hitting ‘em hard. No way to tell from recaps.

I should note, too, that the BIP-type listed above as gliners are only those seeing-eye line drives that were caught by infielders on the fly—these aren’t the worst kind of contact to give up and there’s no way to tell how many of the plays classified as liners were this kind that simply weren’t caught by an infielder. Gliners tend to land for singles if they aren’t hit right at an infielder, and if they’re caught by an infielder with a runner on base, they go for double plays fairly often—occasionally triple plays. Still, the line drive rate’s going to have to get cut down going forward. My guess is he gets it under control as he learns how to use his repertoire better against pro batters. Here’s hoping he does it for Quad Cities, unless the organization is committing to bringing Maj along as a starting pitcher.

Never got around to writing up a big post about the Spring Training trip, but here’re a few more pictures:

Back in December, I picked three sleepers in the Cardinals system, unheralded players in the low minors that I thought would break out this season. Now that the 2008 draft is behind us and the short season teams have started, all three players are assigned to teams and putting up numbers that can be evaluated.

The first of these players was Juan Mosquera, who I liked on the basis of the solid batting eye he showed last year in the DSL. He’s a switch-hitting shortstop who walks a lot but hadn’t shown any power. Figuring he had plenty of room to grow and will be playing in his age-20 season this year, I thought some XBH ability might show up in a hurry this season. He’s still listed at 154 pounds, so there’s no evidence that he’s filled out his frame during the off-season. Assigned to the Gulf Coast League, he’s possibly behind younger middle infielders on the depth chart. He’s yet to record an at-bat or play in the field, although he was used as a pinch runner in the first GCL Cards game of the year. It’s also possible that he’s recovering from some sort of injury that’s relegated him to PR duties. Hopefully he gets into a game soon and stops making me look like a damned fool. (And recovers fully, if he’s injured.)

Too early to say whether this was a bad sleeper pick or not, but early signs are not encouraging. He almost certainly will not move along as quickly as I’d optimistically hoped for. (Make it to the FSL by the end of the season.)

Non-sleeper and Cuban defector Ryde Rodriguez has yet to impress with the bat, but so far in the five games the GCL Cards have played, he’s recorded two outfield assists. That’s something worth noting.

The second pick was Brian Broderick, a tall RHSP drafted in the 21st round last year who had excellent control numbers as a collegian and a rookie in the professional leagues. He’s gotten good results, with a 3.79 ERA through 18 games with Quad Cities. He’s made one start since the tandem system was abandoned at QC, pitching 7 innings of 1-run ball on Wednesday. His strikeout rate has fallen off dramatically this year, from 7.12 per nine over two levels in 2007 to 4.29 strikeouts per nine innings this year. He’s still not walking many batters: 1.36 per nine so far this season. A good number, but not the sparkling 0.94 per nine of 2007. A note I made in the original post was that he’ll need to improve against lefts this season and that hasn’t happened. Against right handers, he’s an extreme groundball pitcher. Lefthanders hit line drives and home runs off him far too easily, something he’s certainly working on improving.

In his start Wednesday against the A’s Class-A team, he faced a lineup featuring six left-handed batters, including Shane Keough, whose mother might be recognizable to any ladies into “reality” television or fellas with a copy of the November 1980 issue of Playboy. He faced those six batters a total 18 times, collecting two strikeouts, five groundouts, three popups, three flyballs (one for a double), and five line drives: three for singles, one for a double, and one caught by Tommy Pham.

Broderick has yet to gain any vocal advocates in Cardinal Nation that I know of, but he’s having a quietly successful campaign and emerged from the tandem portion of the season thought highly enough by his coaches to earn a spot in the rotation. My expectations of him for this season were to “dominate” at Class-A all season and to skip to AA in 2009. He’s got enough season left to bring his strikeout rate up and to continue improving against lefties. A couple outings like his June 10th, 8K performance against the Cubs’ A-ball affiliate would be nice to see. I’ll tentatively call him a successful sleeper pick.

The third sleeper pick was Jameson Maj, the closer at Abilene Christian University drafted in the 45th round of the 2007 draft. He’d only pitched 1 1/3 innings last year after signing a contract to join the Cardinals’ farm system on the last day possible, striking out two. But he was nails in the wooden-bat Texas Collegiate League and in college, although admittedly at the D-II level. Over those three levels of competition in 2007, he struck out 100 batters while walking only seven. He allowed one home run in his last season of college, in one of the first games of the year. The rest of the time, he did almost nothing but get ground ball double-play outs, strikeouts, and pop-ups. Big kid (6’4″, 225), excellent control, excellent balls-in-play tendencies.

I saw him at Spring Training this year, and introduced myself to him as a Jameson Maj fan, something he seemed more than a bit amused by. Nice guy, confused that I knew his amateur peripheral statistics from the 2007 season. Says he doesn’t like walking batters. He told me that his elbow came down with some soreness last year at Batavia, explaining his limited usage there as the season wound down. I didn’t get to see him pitch at all at Jupiter and was worried that his elbow discomfort would spoil opportunities for him this season. He said he’d be assigned to Extended to get the elbow in shape for professional pitching.

At the time I wrote the sleeper post, I had hopes that he’d start off as closer for QC and be promoted as high as AA before the end of the season if he performed as well as I expect he can. He was assigned to short-season Class-A Batavia again and has found himself pitching in a tandem with Ramon Delgado. He’s pitched in two games, starting on June 18th, putting up a line of 4IP, 2K, 1BB!, 6H, and 6R, four earned. He induced two flyballs: one caught, the other went for a single; twelve balls on the ground: one a double-play ball to end a poorly defended third inning, six more fielded cleanly, one thrown away by the 3B, and four that got through the infield defense; and one line drive for a single.

In his second outing on Monday, he pitched the last five innings, allowing no runs on three hits, striking out five and walking none. In that game, he allowed three fly balls, two of which were caught and one that went for a double; four grounders, two for singles and two that were fielded cleanly; two pop-ups on the infield; and three line-drives fielded cleanly by infielders. A very strong outing.

The coaches obviously think highly enough of Maj to put him in a tandem. I’m guessing they’re keen to get him plenty of innings to evaluate what they’ve got in his arm instead of doing it to convert him to a starting. So far, so good. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if he’s promoted to the QC bullpen very soon.

Update: Way to make me look good, guys. Maj’s next outing featured far too many line drives again (and another walk), Broderick threw the worst game of his career (I’m guessing), and Mosquera still has yet to play. Fortunately, I’ve got a day job.

Kary Booher, beat reporter covering the S-Cards for the Springfield News Leader, has been on a tear of late at his Cardinals Corner blog/columns (nee Kary’s Hot Corner).

The latest post is on Mike Roberts, a very bright “old-school” scout for the Cardinals and one of the senior supervisors of the department. Contrast Roberts’ view of the organization with Booher’s story on Gene Tenace, who railed publicly about his low opinion of Jeff Luhnow. Tenace is an interesting character. As a player, he’s noteworthy for taking Dave Duncan’s catching job for the A’s, among other things. He’s also one of those players whose career looks much better under sabermetric light. But like another such player, he seems to find the illumination repulsive and dangerous.

Thought I’d do a little write up a gamelog on Jameson Maj, who made two professional appearances last season. Apologies to Toronto and Pirates fans for the shallow descriptions of their A- players, about whom I know very little. The first was on August 25th:

He came in with no outs and runners on first and third. His first batter faced was Victor Santana, who’s big and raw but not yet remotely dangerous at the plate. Santana grounded out to Maj, scoring the runner from third and advancing the other from first to second.

The next batter was Luis Sanchez, a switch-hitting shortstop who also isn’t exactly a terror at the plate. Sanchez singled on a line drive to Tommy Pham in CF. The runner on second advanced to third.

With first and third, one out, up came Ben Zeskind, a switch-hitting LF with nice power. Maj struck him out swinging.

Next was Adam Calderone, a lefty CF with speed and a pretty good batter’s eye. He singled on a line drive to Tommy Pham, scoring the runner on third. First and second, two outs, two runs in.

He ended the inning by inducing Darin Mastroianni to ground into a 6-4 force. Mastroianni was a D-II first team All-American before leaving school for the Blue Jays farm. In his final year of college, he put up a .409/.484/.549 line with 22 strikeouts to 31 walks. His first professional line was .287/.391/.409 with 42 strikeouts to 36 walks last year.

By my count, he faced two right handers and three lefties in this outing, collecting two groundball outs, two singles to center, and striking out a batter.

His second outing was shorter and more successful, on August 28th:

Clay Long was having a rough time getting out of the fifth inning. He’d walked a batter, allowed a stolen base and a run to score on a wild pitch, a single, and double, and two home runs in that frame before Maj came in on relief. Long had struck out a batter and a baserunner had been caught stealing second for two outs. At the plate was the Spikes clean-up hitter, a .312/.362/.487 right-handed first baseman by the name of Justin Byler, who was already 2-2 on the day with a home run. Maj struck him out swinging.

Byler went on to single again off Thomas Eager and ended up scoring the go-ahead run.

Dammit, I’m ready for baseball season already.

Kary Booher, who covers the Springfield Cardinals, has a piece up about who from Springfield will be added to the 40-man roster, a topic I wrote about at length late last night. The decision is likely to be made tonight, says Booher.

Excellent interview at VeB with Dyar Miller, pitching coach at Memphis last season, promoted to Minor League Pitching Coordinator this year. At one point, Miller made this eyebrow-raising observation:

I’m not saying we baby guys, but I’d like to see pitchers go through the 7th and 8th inning more often. When they get into trouble, leave them in there to fight through it. Because that’s what they’re gonna have to do in the big leagues. I’m more for that at double A and triple A — let them fight through some of those jams. Let them throw 120 pitches a couple of times in a row. Let relief pitchers throw 2 or 3 innings at a time instead of 1 inning here and 1 inning there. That’s something we need to talk about as an organization; I’m just giving my opinion. But it’s a lot tougher to pitch in the big leagues, so you gotta be tough. Make pitching down here a little more like it’s gonna be up in the big leagues; don’t make it so easy on them.

That one caught me off guard, too. I’d hate to see our farm system turn into a meat-grinder and pitchers coming through our system wearing out before they even reach arbitration years. A few minutes thinking and I posted this in the discussion:

There’s a school of thought that pitchers nowadays are excessively coddled in the minor leagues and they arrive at the majors underconditioned for the rigors of throwing a full load of MLB quality pitches on turn, and that leads to more injuries, and more severe injuries, in the long run.

At the risk of taking liberties with Miller’s words, it sounds like they’re going to be implementing a system-wide emphasis on conditioning and mechanics, from draft to call-up. That’s a good thing, even if they don’t follow through with the 120 pitches in consecutive starts thing. If you make that as the goal, it might help to make the pitchers take their long-toss and other conditioning drills more seriously and may speed up the thrower-to-pitcher learning curve, as the pitchers will have to plan on going deeper into games—they’ll need to work harder on preparation and getting quick outs.

That may be coupled with a de-emphasis of individual stats—another way of not coddling pitchers by leaving them in situations where they may struggle to succeed. If you ask a guy to take something off his fastball so he can go deeper, you can’t hold back his advancement if he allows more hits as a consequence. I could see it working out if they preach it early and often to the pitchers and work hard to keep their spirits up when their stat lines don’t look pretty.

I’d like to see increased investment in the medical staff. Don’t know what they already have, but I’d think a nutritionist might be a wise hire to make sure these guys are eating enough of the right things to keep rebuilding themselves all season.