Archive for July, 2008

Book Reports

Saturday, July 26th, 2008

Being that I’m in the process of writing my dissertation (working towards finishing by December), I’ve spent a lot of time this summer reading some pretty dense and difficult academic papers. A few years ago I found that it helped considerably to take breaks from reading for work to read for pleasure. I read two books in the past week and a half that are definitely worth mentioning. I’ll try to talk about them a bit without spoiling them for you, since my intent is to recommend them to youse, and highly.

My favorite writer for a while has been Vernor Vinge on the strength of his newer books, A Deepness in the Sky and Fire upon the Deep, easily the best pieces of fiction I’ve read in the past decade. It surprised me to find that he’s been writing fiction since the mid-80s, so I picked up the Peace War, written in 1984. Science fiction books written during the Reagan administration have amused me for the past several years—the vast majority of writers then seemed to assume that our buffoon of a president would cause the downfall of Western civilization, the Russians were typically the prominent technological innovators in their imagined future worlds.

In The Peace War, the Cold War ends at the hands of a group of scientists working for a top-secret military contractor for the US. This team discovers a high-energy weapon that generates “bobbles”, silvery spheres impenetrable by all known forms of matter and energy. They use the technology to enclose key military installations in the US and Soviet Union and to snag nuclear-armed ICBMs in the air to save the world from the threat of mutually assured destruction and eventually succeed in bringing down all the world’s governments, plunging mankind into a peaceful anarchy. Advanced capitalism and industrial operations are banned by threat of bobbling. The book follows a small and distributed group of revolutionaries seeking to restore mankind to its former glory.

An interesting premise, and a believable one—I’ve known many academics who would agree humanity would be better off without wealth and technology. There’s a sequel out there, too, that I plan to pick up after I get through some work-reading.

The other book is Old Man’s War by John Scalzi. There’s very little I could say about the plot of this story that wouldn’t spoil it, but I’ll try my best. The future Earth in this book is quite a bit like the one we live on now, except that a group of humans had left the planet to colonize the planets and ended up drastically outpacing those who stayed behind technologically. The Colonials developed a faster-than-light drive and the technology to build a space elevator on Earth, which they use to transport the suffering people of overpopulated nations on the planet to the stars to start new lives as colonists. The people of the wealthier nations with stable populations (like the US) aren’t allowed to volunteer as colonists, but they can volunteer to join the Colonial Defense Force once they reach the age of 75 years. This is a popular opportunity, since reason stands that one of that advanced age wouldn’t be of much use on any sort of battlefield and so the Colonials must have advanced technology to make the old young again.

What follows is a deeply philosophical story about the nature of identity, humanity, and the ethics of warfare—a story carried by surprisingly well-written, and at times very funny, dialogue. I was surprised to find that this book was only written a few years ago, and in the intervening years Scalzi has written at least three other books, two of them sequels to Old Man’s War.

I couldn’t recommend these books any more highly, even to those who think they don’t like science fiction.

A few unrelated links to stuff worth spending a few minutes reading:

CC Sabathia, Prince Fielder Keep Imagining Each Other as Giant Talking Hot Dog, Hamburger — the Onion went through a very cold spell for a while until they added a sports section.

Stan Musial — Joe Posnanski’s essay about The Man, which would’ve had me in tears of admiration if my ducts hadn’t atrophied during puberty.

A Memorable Day

Friday, July 25th, 2008

This little guy knows how to spend a Tuesday afternoon.

Another Sleeper Awakens

Friday, July 25th, 2008

Jameson Maj is kicking ass (although dealing with some mildly worrying BIP tendencies lately as detailed in excruciatingly overlong detail below), Brian Broderick is on the DL, and my third sleeper minor leaguer for 2008, Juan Mosquera, mysteriously hasn’t been playing but wasn’t put on the DL.

Juan Mosquera, recall from an earlier post, is a switch-hitting 5’10″ shortstop from Panama City who walked 51 times against 39 strikeouts in the Dominican Summer League last year. He was assigned to the GCL Cardinals but hadn’t played until today, playing at second base. He went 0-1 with four walks. The out was a grounder to second with one out and a man on second that advanced the runner, so he’s off to a good start. My hope was that he’d add a little bit of meat over the winter and start hitting the ball into gaps, but he’s still listed at 154 lbs. In truth, my hope is that he’s the second coming of this guy, but Luhnow’s assesses him as more of a hard-worker than a toolsy guy. Looking forward to seeing what kind of a shortened season he has in the coming month and in winter ball.

And how cool is this? MinorLeagueSplits (by Jeff Sackmann) now allows you to toggle the statistics for park adjustment. Very cool.

A little update on these guys: Maj pitched on the back-end of the tandem on July 28th. He pitched a solid four innings, striking out four and walking none: six groundballs to five flyballs, but nothing reported as a line drive in the game recap. One of the flyballs, unfortunately, went for a home run pulled off the bat of lefty Steve Susdorf, who was a senior on the College World Series champion Fresno State, carries the reputation of an all-around good guy and team leader, and who’s been tearing the cover off the ball since going pro. Even though Williamsport’s stadium has even deeper walls than Busch III, it has inflated home runs by a bit over the past few years.

Still a good night: no walks, no line drives, one DP induced. It’s worth noting that the only batters to’ve hit a HR or drawn a walk from this pitcher are left-handers.

Mosquera has played one game since the one mentioned above in this post, he walked, grounded out to the pitcher, and flew out to left on the 26th. Here’s looking forward to that first base hit.

Broderick’s still on the DL.

Ask, and ye shall receive: Mosquera grounds two up the middle tonight, plus a flyout to left and a fielded grounder to first.

Fielding Independent Pitching

Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008

Adron Chambers, Jameson Maj, and Joe Hage

The theory of Fielding or Defense Independent Pitching originated with Vörös McCracken’s 1999 posting on rec.sport.baseball.analysis. His insight was that pitchers have no control over whether balls in play turn into outs or hits, outside of balls that he fields himself, but that pitchers have direct control over walks, strikeouts, and home runs. (The Three True Outcomes, not his term.) This caused a revolution in the way pitchers are evaluated and it’s turned out to be true that the best way to predict how well a pitcher will perform in the future is by looking at these peripheral 3TO statistics.

The theory been considerably refined since 1999. Tangotiger developed the weights to normalize McCracken’s DIPS theory to the current version of FIP, using this formula:

FIP = NC + (HR*13 + (BB+HBP-IBB)*3 – K*2)/IP

NC in that formula is a normalizing constant that needs adjusting for league and era—but for quick and dirty calculations, it’s 3.20. Dave Studeman refined FIP to xFIP by replacing the actual count of home runs allowed to 11 percent of flyballs allowed by that pitcher, since flyballs that make it to the track and those that clear the fence by a few feet aren’t something the pitcher can control—doing this removes some element of luck from the equation.

I think we can do better, though, since, contrary to McCracken’s initial observation, most pitchers have ball-in-play tendencies that are predictable year-to-year. Pitchers like Johan Santana who induce a large portion of flyballs of the total number of balls in play allowed usually maintain those high flyball rates throughout their careers, same goes for groundball pitchers like Brandon Webb. Crucially, different types of balls put into play are converted into outs at different rates. Pop-ups very rarely land for a hit, flyballs are caught at a fairly high percentage, and groundballs are converted at a lower rate. Line drives tend not to be converted into outs very often at all. Fangraphs now publishes a statistic called xBABIP (explained here). The acronym expands to eXpected Batting Average on Balls In Play, and is calculated using this formula:

.15 * FB% + .24 * GB% + .73 * LD%

Per their parameters, then, flyballs are expected to be caught 85% of the time and land safely 15% of the time, groundballs turn into outs 76% of the time, and 27% of line drives should be caught in the air. Since pitchers do have some control over the type of balls in play against them to some measurable degree, and the type of ball in play allowed has consequences that effect both home run allowed rate and BABIP generally, discussed some here by Derek Carty, these factors can be modeled into an unexpected DIPS-style statistic that ought to be a better predictor of a pitcher’s future performance.

Clumsy Segue

There are no “line-drive pitchers” that have any sort of success in professional baseball since line drives are clearly undesirable types of balls in play due to their being unplayable nearly three-quarters of the time. Line drives mean that the batter squared up on the pitch and hit it hard. From start to start, month to month, year to year over a pitchers’ career, his line drive rate’ll vary some with the quality of his stuff, the quality of opponents he faces, the hitter’s background, blind luck, or any number of things in varying degrees of his control. That variability in LD%, the quality of the defense he pitches in front of, and the pitcher’s strand rate—measuring in a way the clumpiness of balls in play unconverted to outs—are the primary factors that account for the unpredictability of a pitcher’s ERA from year to year. Good pitchers strike out a lot of batters to reduce the fickleness of balls in play, don’t walk many batters, and tend to control well how balls are put into play against them, either on the ground or in the air, but rarely squarely hit for line drives.

This brings me to my favorite pet prospect, the 45th rounder Jameson Maj who threw 5 innings of 4 hit ball tonight, allowing 2 unearned runs to score. He walked his third player of the season—all lefthanders. Maj had been giving up far too many line drives lately, but in his last game before tonight, he’d allowed none. Tonight, three batters hit liners off of him and all three went for hits, including the 3rd inning double that was the key to scoring those two unearned runs off him. He’s still striking out batters in bunches and walking very few—he’s at a sparkling 27:3 k:bb in 31 innings. But 21% of the balls in play against him are line drives—hitters are making solid contact too frequently. The full breakdown of balls in play look like this so far this season:

Bunts: 0.0117647058824
Popups: 0.105882352941
Groundballs: 0.458823529412
Flyballs: 0.211764705882
Gliners: 0.0588235294118
Liners: 0.152941176471

The groundball percentage is great, especially for a pitcher with this kind of strikeout ability. Popups are the best kind of ball in play you can induce, but they’re hard to get—there are more ways to make a ball sink unexpectedly to get groundballs and only one way to make a ball fail to sink as expected to get a popup. I didn’t differentiate college flyballs and popups, but I’m pretty sure the popup rate was higher in college than here, although 10% of balls in play being easy outs that don’t advance runners is a solid, healthy rate. I suspect (straight BS’ing here) that part of the line-drive problem may come from using a riding four-seam fastball as an out-pitch and to get those popups—batters are just guessing right on them sometimes and hitting ‘em hard. No way to tell from recaps.

I should note, too, that the BIP-type listed above as gliners are only those seeing-eye line drives that were caught by infielders on the fly—these aren’t the worst kind of contact to give up and there’s no way to tell how many of the plays classified as liners were this kind that simply weren’t caught by an infielder. Gliners tend to land for singles if they aren’t hit right at an infielder, and if they’re caught by an infielder with a runner on base, they go for double plays fairly often—occasionally triple plays. Still, the line drive rate’s going to have to get cut down going forward. My guess is he gets it under control as he learns how to use his repertoire better against pro batters. Here’s hoping he does it for Quad Cities, unless the organization is committing to bringing Maj along as a starting pitcher.

Never got around to writing up a big post about the Spring Training trip, but here’re a few more pictures:

Yours Truly at Roger Dean

Inside of Roger Dean with the former STL Browns visiting

Brian Barton batting against the Marlins

Birds on Posts

Recap the Day

Thursday, July 17th, 2008

Worked all day, played softball (went 2-5, lined into a DP, struck out to end the first game of the doubleheader), finished my vegetable garden very, very late in the season, and sang some tunes:

Danzig: Mother

Blues Image: Ride Captain Ride

Joy Division: Love Will Tear Us Apart

Blast from the Past

Wednesday, July 16th, 2008

I had a .wmv copy of Don Hertzfeld’s “Rejected” animated short years and years ago. I lost the disk it was on and for a long time it was difficult to find, so it’d been a long time since I’d seen it. Now it’s up on youtube and some of my colleagues at work had never seen it.

It’s a brilliant work of art, in addition to being hilarious, so if you haven’t seen it ever or recently, behold:

In other news, I’ve surfed this beach when sharks were swimming about, fins a’glintin’. Blacktips, though, and not showing off like that.

BigDog

Thursday, July 10th, 2008

This is a very cool robot.

Check out the clip in the video when the handler kicks it.

And this is a brilliantly funny spoof.

Note to Self

Thursday, July 10th, 2008

See if this works.

About three or four years ago, I’d been up all night writing a piece of software for a research project. I finished at around 4 or 5 in the morning and was very pleased with myself. Crashed for a few hours then went to get the work off my laptop. The laptop wouldn’t boot, though. After about an hour of cussing and googling, I found that my hard disk had somehow platter locked itself, meaning that it had physically locked down the disk until I keyed in some password. At the time, it looked pretty much un-breakable: the disk had to be powered down after five failed attempts to guess the password so a brute-force method wouldn’t have worked to crack it back open. The best I could find was a solution to get an identical, unlocked disk and swap out the platters.

Searching around just now, I came across that very simple solution that people in several online forums report to work very well. Apparently the platter lock mechanism has two different passwords, one set by the user and a master password set at the factory. If true, I’ll have access again to a huge amount of pictures and music that’d been lost to me for a long, long time—in addition to that since re-written piece of software.

Mike Hampton

Thursday, July 10th, 2008

I’d argued that trading for Mike Hampton would be a smart high-risk, high-reward move in the offseason. To a mixture of irritation and bemusement for the Braves fans, he injured a pectoral muscle warming up for his first start of the season and has been on the disabled list ever since. His rehabilitation has gone well, though, aside from one bad start in the Sally league in which he wasn’t helped much by his defense.

His penultimate rehab start was a masterful outing, a five inning performance with six strikeouts and seven groundball outs to two in the air. His final rehab start will be tomorrow for the Braves’ AA affiliate, according to Sean Horgan in his write-up of the A+ start. I’ll be keeping any eye on that start, of course.