Here’re three minor-league players that I expect to make significant progress in the 2008 season.
Juan Mosquera: A 19-year-old 5’10″ switch-hitting shortstop from Panama who had a successful season in the Dominican Summer League, batting .299/.484/.338 with a 39:51 ratio of strikeouts to walks. He stole 18 bases, which is good—but in 28 attempts, which is bad. Only four of his forty-seven hits went for extra bases. He’s on Jeff Lunhow’s radar, saying of scout.com’s DSL Cardinal position player of the year:
Mosquera … works for everything he gets. He is a high energy player who doesn’t wow you with his tools but he gets the job done. From the day I tried him out on a dusty, hot field in Panama City to now he has progressed.His weight is listed at 154 lbs and he’s not playing in any Winter League that I know of. Ideally, I’d like to hear that he’s on a nutrition and conditioning program to add 30 pounds over the next year and that his offseason is devoted to nothing but eating good food, lifting weights, and watching every clip of Rafael Furcal on record.
I expect Dan Nelson will be promoted to AA Springfield for 2008, and that Oliver Marmol or someone will take his place at A+-Palm Beach. I’d be happy to see Mosquera get a shot on the A-Quad Cities shortstop job, leapfrogging Kozma who should probably do extended spring training then stay at Batavia until his bat comes around. I thought Wladimir Mendoza would be more successful moving form the DSL to the American pro-leagues—here’s hoping Mosquera does a better job adjusting and adds some pop to his game in his third professional season. If he finishes the season at Palm Beach, he will have succeeded mightily in going from sleeper to prospect. (And it would also indicate that Kozma made strides as well, who I’d like to see finish the year in the Quad Cites.)
Brian Broderick: A 21-year-old 6’6″ 205 lb RHSP drafted in the 21st round in 2007 out of Grand Canyon University. In 88 2/3 college IP, he struck out 74 while allowing 22 walks. He continued this fine control as a professional pitcher, striking out 53 to 7 walked batters. He was an extreme groundball pitcher with Johnsonville (2.26 G:F) but couldn’t burn dem worms after being promoted to Batavia.
He allowed line drive rates around 17% at both levels, suggesting that he may have trouble keeping more advanced hitters from squaring up on his strikes and also needs to improve vs. lefthanders, but I like the size and control combination well enough to see him emerging as a legit prospect next year. I’d like to see him start at Quad Cities and dominate there before skipping to AA to start 2009.
Jameson Maj: A 22-year-old 6’4″ 225 lb RHRP who signed on the last day possible and threw only 1 1/3 inning at Batavia, striking out two batters and allowing two to single on line drives (both to left-handed hitters, although he struck out the third lefty he faced.) The sample size renders it meaningless, but his two non-K outs were grounders.
Before signing, he pitched 24 innings for the Denton Outlaws in the wooden bat Texas Collegiate League. In those 24 innings, he struck out twenty-six batters while walking only three. I don’t know where to find BIP data for the TCL, but in those 24 innings, he recorded four putouts and seven assists. So of the 46 non-K outs he pitched, he personally had a hand in fielding 11, or 24% of the BIP. Brandon Wood, perhaps the Platonic ideal of the high-K/9, high G:F pitcher, had a hand in just under 15% of his non-K outs, so we can reasonably assume that Maj keeps the ball down.
And before that, as the closer for Abilene Christian University, he recorded 72 strikeouts to only 4 walks. For the season, across three very different levels {NCAA D-II, Texas Collegiate League (high quality amateur), and short season A-ball, he showed phenomenal control with high strikeout rates and extreme groundball tendencies. He’s big and strong, and mature enough to rise quickly through the system. I’d like to see him start the year closing for the Swing of the Quad Cities (or whatever they’ll be called next year) with Josh Dew skipping to High-A, where he should look very, very good as a flyball pitcher in a flyball pitcher’s park. If he’s as good against pro competition as he was against collegians and amateurs, and his skillset looks like it should carry over nicely, he could finish the year as high as middle relief in AA.
Those are my three picks for sleeper prospects—players that most fans who have a pretty good idea of the farm system may not have heard of and who I think will have breakout seasons and finish the year as real prospects heading into 2009.