Here are some statistics for two pitchers over four years heading into free agency:
AGE---BB/9---K/9----HR/9---FIP----G:F----P/IP
25----3.48---5.31---1.49---5.44---1.39---16.5
26----3.05---4.95---1.07---4.83---1.36---16.3
27----2.94---4.72---1.38---5.23---1.30---16.5
28----2.25---4.85---1.38---4.45---1.30---15.7
Ave---2.94---5.31---1.24---4.99---1.34---16.63
25----2.75---7.10---1.34---4.56---1.18---16.0
26----2.66---5.10---1.10---4.63---1.29---15.5
27----3.48---4.73---1.25---5.29---1.61---16.6
28----2.40---5.53---1.29---4.69---1.59---15.8
Ave---2.87---5.54---1.23---4.81---1.39---15.87
These are two very similar pitchers at the same age. The second one is slightly better at all facets of his game over this span—he walks fewer, strikes out more, gives up fewer home runs, keeps the ball on the ground better, and needs fewer pitches to get out of his average inning. These are similar pitchers, with a slight edge in peripherals going to the second pitcher.
That first pitcher is Jeff Suppan from 2000 to 2003, before he signed a three-year contract with the Cardinals. Going into 2004, the Cardinals had missed the playoffs for the first time in three years. The Cubs had won the division and looked poised to be even better in 2004 behind their stud starters, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. The 2003 season was a bad one for the Cardinals—Jeff Fassero, Sterling Hitchcock, and Jason Simontacchi started 28 games combined for the Cards that year. Prior to joining the Cardinals, Suppan had reeled off four consecutive 200 inning seasons. He became available when the Red Sox non-tendered him following the 2003 season. After three years in St. Louis, much of Redbird Nation made a fuss over ownership’s refusal to resign Suppan to a lucrative contract last offseason. He left for the Brewers, who finished ahead of the Cardinals in the division.
And so once again, we find ourselves out of the playoffs for the first time in three years. The Cubs earned the NL Central championship and look poised to be even better in 2008 with solid, deep pitching and a potent offense. The 2007 Cardinals, meanwhile, started 50 games with Mike Maroth, Kip Wells, and Brad Thompson on the mound.
The second pitcher above is Joel Piñeiro, whom the Cardinals signed today on a two-year contract. The signing has caused considerable consternation at Viva el Birdos—as of time of this writing, having inspired over 300 comments across two separate sidebar posts. The comments range from cautious optimism to HE-IS-TEH-SUCK to run John Mozeliak out of town for making the offer, with the majority in the latter two thirds of that spectrum. The contract is for two years—a $500,000 signing bonus, $5 million in 2008 and $7.5 million in 2009. More than I was hoping for, but not paralyzing.
Soup and Piñeiro is not a perfect comparison. As mentioned, Soup was coming off four 200 inning seasons; Joel’s demonstrated durability during his career, but has only thrown over 200 once, back in 2003. Some might suggest that Joel’s strikeout rates versus Suppan were pumped up by his time in the bullpen. This was true in 2006. After Piñeiro struggled to a 4.27 K/9 in the Seattle rotation that year, he was demoted to the bullpen, where he started striking out batters at a 7.40 rate for the remaining 24 1/3 innings. However, in 2007, his strikeout rate increased from 5.29 in Boston’s bullpen to 5.65 in the Cardinal rotation and he was a starter the other years. His strikeout ability is undeniably superior to Soup’s.
Jeff Suppan is making $8 million in 2008, when Joel will earn $5 million; in 2009, the Brewers owe Soup $12.5 million when Piñeiro will be owed five million less. If they can put up comparable production—and I see no reason that Joel can’t do at least as well—we’ll have a nice contract on hand. I wasn’t in favor of signing Piñeiro before last season since I didn’t like the way his numbers were trending. He’s shown signs of turning those trends back around this year and gave us Suppan-quality outings since coming over. The Cardnilly rule of thumb for a Suppan game is that if he gives you six innings with fewer than three runs scored, he’s done his job—got the game to the bullpen with the opposing offense under control. Over Joel’s eleven starts, he averaged 5.79 IP while allowing 2.91 runs to score. I’m betting he can do better next year with an offseason to settle into his role and spring training to work with Duncan, and am very confident he can consistently meet or beat that Cardnilly standard.
And if both Boggs and Garcia are ready to pitch at the MLB level in 2009, Piñiero may make a nice trading chip. The way salary inflation for starting pitchers is going, $7.5 million for an established LAIM should be an acceptable price—if decent talent is coming back in a trade, I could see the Cards paying some of the salary if he doesn’t work out as well as the front office expects.
Like I said this afternoon—nothing worth throwing a hissy-fit about. It’s a risk, but not a terrible one. Our rotation was missing a steady innings-eater in 2007 and gambling that Joel can fill that role is hardly a fool’s wager.
Peripherally related, but it looks like Chris Narveson is no longer in the organization—no longer listed on the Memphis roster and not on the 40-man.
One more: Dug out my 2006 Baseball Prospectus and found that Piñeiro had an elbow injury in 2004 that cost him the last two months of the year. After that, his velocity had dropped and his strikeout rate along with it. His velocity is back up this year, with his fastball averaging 91.53 mph. He’ll look like a real steal if his K/9 climbs as well. Best not to get unrealistically optimistic. (That velocity would give him the second hardest fastball in the rotation… after Todd Wellemeyer. (Wagonmaker’s heater sits a fraction below 91.) [Oops! Forgot Kip Wells, who's fastball averaged 92.29.]
