It’s high time for a first look at how my pre-season predictions are coming about. The first one I made was on the Jason Jennings for Hirsh and Taveras trade. At the time, I said:
That’s a really bad move for Houston, barring some already-agreed-to favorable contract extension and he’s already turned down a 3yr/$24.5m offer from Colorado. I’d bet dollars-to-donuts that Hirsh has a better 2007 than Jennings. The Rox couldn’t have come up with much better a center fielder than Willy Taveras. Competing with the likes of Juan Pierre, Dave Roberts, and Eric Byrnes, he could be the second best offensive CF in the division after Cameron.
Colorado fans must be awfully happy today.
That was a terrible trade for the Astros. Jenning’s made only 14 starts this season and hasn’t signed an extension with the Astros. He’s dealt with various injuries over the season and managed to get two Padres out while giving up 11 runs in a horror-show start today. Jason Hirsh hasn’t been the pitcher I thought he’d be just yet, but I don’t think many people doubt his future’s brightness.
Jennings: 5.99 ERA – 13 GS – 76.2 IP – 29:56 BB:K – 75:95 G:F – 8 HR
Hirsh: 4.90 ERA – 17 GS – 101 IP – 42:66 BB:K – 99:136 G:F – 16 HR!
Hirsh has been a better pitcher than Jennings this year, but not dramatically so. As for how Willy Taveras stacks up against other NL West center fielders:
Young: .244/.295/.453 – 15:16 SB:Att – 22:69 BB:K – 18 HR
Cameron: .245/.314/.424 – 10:14 SB:Att – 34:100 BB:K – 13 HR
Taveras: .309/.358/.371 – 24:32 SB:Att – 18:45 BB:K – 2 HR
Roberts: .262/.330/.355 – 21:24 SB:Att – 25:46 BB:K – 2 HR
Pierre: .282/.314/.335 – 42:51 SB:Att – 18:25 BB:K – 0 HR
I was pretty close, failing to predict Chris Young’s power production out of center field for the Snakes. Taveras was considered an all-glove/no-bat outfielder before the trade, so it was a pretty bold prediction, I’d say. That he’s managed to contribute so consistently at the plate for the Rockies is impressive. The Astros got royally screwed in that trade. It didn’t take much to see that at the time.
I had a post of Pre-season Predictions that don’t look so great now.
The first was that T.J. Nall would make the Nationals opening day roster and turn out to be their best setup man by the all-star break. T.J. is a pitcher from the Dodgers system who absolutely dominated AA batters with a 9.19 K/9 rate, but for whatever reason couldn’t make the transition to AAA. He was caught up in the Great Gnats Minor League FA Dragnet of 2007 but failed to make the team out of Spring Training and was released before the All-Star Break to be picked up by the Red Sox. I was wrong, but not as badly as the next prediction.
This one was so laughably wrong in every respect, I’ll cut-n-paste the whole thing:
Brian Lawrence signs a split contract with the Rockies and has an exceptional spring, joining a rotation of Cook/Francis/Hirsh/Fogg. He contends with Kip Wells and Mark Mulder for the 2007 NL Comeback Player of the Year award, but loses to Mike Hampton. (Gagne wins it in the AL.)
Lawrence was DFA’d by the Rockies after failing to impress in his rehab stint. He was picked up by the Mets, where he has been a very good flyball pitcher at AAA. Mike Hampton re-injured himself AGAIN before pitches were thrown in anger, Mulder hasn’t begun a rehab stint yet, and Kip Wells hasn’t had the season he or I had hoped for him.
The third prediction:
Taylor Buchholz struggles with home runs and with finding a role in Colorado and, after he fails to clear waivers, is traded to the Cardinals, when we suddenly find ourselves with three of the game’s better curveballers in our rotation.
Taylor’s made a few starts with the Rockies and pitched mostly in long/mop-up duty. He hasn’t been particularly home run prone. I don’t see where he’ll fit in with the Rockies long-term plans and have to think that they asked for him in the Jennings trade more for a trading piece later on than someone their organization can succeed with. Noted curveballers don’t quite fit in up in the Mile High City. I’d be very pleased if we swing a trade for Buchholz at some point before opening day 2008. His value isn’t at all high right now. Maybe they’ll claim Brian Falkenborg, who we DFA’d after he’d pitched so well in Game 1 of yesterday’s double-header. He certainly fits the profile of a good Rockies reliever. Good strikeout rate and keeps the ball on the ground. It’d take more to pry away Buchholz, but it’d be worth pursuing.
The fourth one dealt with Chris Narveson, who I thought would get claimed off waivers by the Nationals. Few players moved on waivers and some that could have been claimed ended up being traded, notably the St. Pierre for Hendrickson trade. Narveson cleared waivers and has had a disappointing, injury-plagued season.
Another prediction was too silly to mention although half of it has turned out true. The true part had to do with some of the bigger team blogs getting more access to minor leaguers and front office types. That has happened and I think we as fans have benefited greatly from it.
The last prediction dealt with Larry Bigbie, who I was happy to have picked up along with Aaron Miles in the Ray King dump trade. Larry had a huge Spring with the Dodgers, didn’t make the club, was released, and eventually signed with Atlanta to play for their AAA affiliate, where he has struggled.